Population expert warns, marriage is our last best hope

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A powerful article by leading demographer Lyman Stone highlights that marriage is “by far the most important factor shaping fertility”. I caught up with Lyman, whose research points out that 75% of the fertility decline since 2007 is directly tied to falling marriage rates. Watch our full interview online here or a shorter 14 minute version here.

In our full conversation, Lyman stresses the urgency of understanding that marriage isn’t just about tradition – it’s the cornerstone of thriving societies. He makes it crystal clear: “Married people still have way more kids”, and marriage itself directly increases fertility. He emphasises that “the more years you spend in marriage, the more babies you have”, demonstrating why earlier marriages are crucial.

Our current replacement rate of 1.44 means the population shrinks by a third every generation, a drastic decline with profound implications. Immigration often comes up as a potential solution, but this is not a sustainable long-term fix. Lyman emphasises that real marriage remains the only viable and proven solution for societies to thrive long-term.

We also tackled common myths around overpopulation and climate change. Lyman argues convincingly that children drive future innovation, not environmental harm. He also debunks the idea that waiting to marry reduces the risk of divorce, pointing out that according to data, “delaying doesn’t make you more likely to stay together”.

Critically, Lyman identifies pressing issues facing young people, especially economic instability among young men and the crippling cost of housing. He insists on the urgent need to “help young men have less failure to launch”. Practical measures, such as removing marriage penalties from welfare systems, subsidising marriage directly, and creating family-friendly educational policies, are essential steps forward. From pastors to policymakers, it’s vital that everyone becomes aware of the urgent need to actively promote real marriage.

At C4M, we remain deeply committed to advocating for real marriage as the foundation for healthier families and flourishing societies. The evidence is clear – promoting marriage isn’t just beneficial; it’s absolutely vital to our existence. Please forward this email to others who might be uncertain about the importance of reversing declining birth rates by supporting real marriage.